i order nucs to cover winter losses in the fall and as late as december, not at this time of year, but some can be available. if i don't i lose out. whether i lose hives or not, or i don't need all of the nucs, my supplier has a plenty good list of waiters if i back out. this is a crap shoot with hives. many times hives i thought would make it didn't, and ones i thought were on the edge of not making it, made it. you never know with all the variables thrown into wintering honey bees. you do all the right things and come late winter to late spring, you lose them.
i know what's in my hives for stores going into winter. i also place 2 inch shims on just in case i need to feed later, like now and going forward. i heft the hives regularly. i listen with a good stethoscope to figure out approximately where they are, not a cheap one. my hearing is not good against a hive. i have opened hives quickly below 40DF to shove winter feed in, and i don't use any smoke. i only open long enough to slide/shove feed in and if i think the hive is in danger of starvation. IMHO there is no reason to unnecessarily open a hive to determine cluster size or reserves left pete, just to prepare and order for winter losses. if you think they are in danger of starvation, add feed. it won't hurt, even if they have reserves. it will be consumed.
like apis said, and jack has said the same thing, throw the rules out if you think they are in danger of starvation.