Yup, once I get several of them with tails up and fanning away I start feeling good about it all.
I have had at least two occasions, though, where the bees were fanning and the queen hadn't made it in yet. These were a swarms that had landed on the ground and were hived by letting the bees walk into the entrance after a few handfuls were dropped through the top. I'm thinking that the fanning bees were "keying" off of the scent imparted to the colony from the queens (probably when they were in the cluster?) rather than the scent coming directly off the queen. The last "ground swarm" like this I simply pushed the entrance up against the edge of the cluster and they started walking in and shortly thereafter started fanning....the queen ended up being on the opposite side of the cluster/pile. In both instances the queens walked past fanning bees as then went through the entrance after almost half the swarm cluster had already entered. I'm thinking, too, that the darkness inside the hive and the "used smell" may have encouraged the fanning.

Seeing the bees start fanning is a very good sign, but I don't think it's 100%...it sure doesn't hurt my feelings when I see it, though!!!

Ed