To close this up, I went out last night and took down the trap-out. I knew it was full of bees, and I hadn't seen anything come out of the cone in a good long while. I peeked in today, and found about a dozen queen cells, lots of capped brood, and no eggs or larvae. Guess I should have pulled more bees at least once more. Total of 15 frames of bees.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.