I am not saying that we can't get swarms this late but it is rarer. The bees know the days are getting shorter and they are already back filling some of the brood nest and cutting back the queen on her brood laying. Even at this time of year I would give a nuc all the room she needs to lay in. They still have another month before they are serious emerging the winter bees. I have brought through many 4 frame nucs where I am and weather here is a little colder but not much, and the duration of winter is about the same. I just leave them outside till the first real cold day in January and then take them and put them on the cool basement floor in a corner with no light except for a red light bulb. and leave them till the first day in Feb or March when the temp goes above 50 deg F. Early spring colony death is most times caused by the bees not moving with the vanishing food supply because they stay with the brood and try to keep it warm. putting them in a warmer dark environment allows them to move in the nuc It also keeps them from starting early brood rearing until the outside temperature is warmer and better for brood rearing.
